|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]鲜楠莹,王红秋*,周笑洋.中国成品油供需现状及其发展趋势[J].石化技术与应用,2022,3:149-152.
　XIAN Nan-ying,WANG Hong-qiu,ZHOU Xiao-yang.Current status and development trend of refined oil′s supply anddemand in China[J].Petrochemical technology & application,2022,3:149-152.
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中国成品油供需现状及其发展趋势(PDF)

《石化技术与应用》[ISSN:1009-0046/CN:62-1138/TQ]

期数:
2022年3期
页码:
149-152
栏目:
出版日期:
2022-05-10

文章信息/Info

Title:
Current status and development trend of refined oil′s supply anddemand in China
文章编号:
1009-0045（2022）03-0149-04
作者:
鲜楠莹; 王红秋*; 周笑洋
中国石油石油化工研究院 战略与信息研究室，北京 102206
Author(s):
XIAN Nan-ying;  WANG Hong-qiu;  ZHOU Xiao-yang
Strategy and Information Research Division， Petrochemical Research Institute，PetroChina， Beijing 102206， China
关键词:
成品油; 供需市场; 汽油; 柴油; 煤油; 现状; 发展趋势
Keywords:
refined oil; supply-demand market; gasoline;  diesel;  kerosene; current status;  development trend
分类号:
F 426
DOI:
DOI：10.19909/j.cnki.ISSN1009-0045.2022.02.0073
文献标识码:
A
摘要:
综述了近5 a中国成品油（汽油、煤油、柴油）市场供需发展情况，指出当前国内成品油已产能过剩，近年来其总产量小幅增加、增速逐步放缓，柴汽比逐年下降，表观总消费量出现拐点，交通运输业成为我国成品油需求增长的最主要拉动力。分析了未来宏观经济环境、产业环境、替代燃料发展前景等因素对我国成品油供需市场发展趋势的影响。预测其总需求将于2025年达到峰值，尽管市场未来5 a将按照“汽缓、煤增、柴降”的格局演进，但是，作为交通运输燃料的主导力量，在未来一二十年不会发生根本性的改变。
Abstract:
The supply-demand development of China′s refined oil（gasoline， kerosene， diesel） market in recent 5 a was reviewed. It was pointed out that the current domestic refined oil production capacity had been excessive in recent years， its total output increased slightly， the growth rate slowed down， the ratio of diesel to gasoline decreased year by year， however， the apparent total consumption had reached an inflection point， and the transportation industry had been the main driving force for the growth of China′s refined oil demand.Then the influences of macroeconomic environment， industrial environment， alternative fuel development prospect and other factors on the development trend of China′s refined oil supply and demand market were analyzed. It was predicted that its total demand would peak in 2025， although the market would evolve according to the pattern of "gasoline production slowing down， kerosene production increasing and diesel production reducing" in the next 5 a， the leading force of refined oil as transportation fuel would not fundamentally change in the next ten to twenty years.

参考文献/References

［1］ IEA. World energy outlook 2021［EB/OL］.［2021-10-13］. https：//www.iea.org/reports.［2］ Hart Energy Company. Global refined product supply & balance 2021［EB/OL］.［2021-12-09］. https：//stratasadvisors.com.［3］ 刘朝全，姜学峰. 2020年国内外油气行业发展报告［M］.北京： 石油工业出版社，2021： 75，126-127.［4］ Hart Energy Company. Global refining forecast［EB/OL］.［2021-12-06］. https：//stratasadvisors.com.［5］ 刘世锦.推动经济发展质量变革、效率变革、动力变革［J］.中国发展观察，2017 （21）：5-6.［6］ 国家发展和改革委员会. 2021年成品油运行简况［EB/OL］.（2022-02-10）.https：//www.ndrc.gov.cn/fgsj/tjsj/jjyx/mdyqy/.［7］ ITIA. Annual review 2021［EB/OL］.［2021-10-30］.https：//www.iata.org/contentassets.［8］ 中国石化集团经济技术研究院有限公司. 2021年中国能源化工产业发展报告［M］.北京： 中国石化出版社，2021： 73-80.［9］ 黄震. 碳中和目标下的内燃机燃料技术［C］. 济南：第2届世界内燃机大会，2021.［10］ 工信部.国务院政策例行吹风会介绍《新能源汽车产业发展规划（2021-2035年）》情况［EB/OL］.（2020-11-03）.https：//www.miit.gov.cn/xwdt/gxdt/ldhd/art/2020.［11］ 国家发展和改革委员会. 国家发展改革委民航局关于印发全国民用运输机场布局规划的通知［EB/OL］.（2017-03-15）. https：//www.ndrc.gov.cn/xxgk/zcfb/ghwb/201703/t20170315_962231.html?code=&state=123.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
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更新日期/Last Update: 2022-05-10